A tidal
wave of information
will allow future businesses to make very precise decisions, predicts
Price Waterhouse
by Alan Zisman (c) 1996 First published
in Business in
Vancouver , Issue #334 March 19, 1996 High Tech
Office
column
Looking
forward to the
rest of the decade? Price Waterhouse is: the PW Technology
Centre recently unveiled its latest forecast of where it expects
changes
in computing and communications to take us by the end of the century.
Here's a taste:
* The raft
of mergers
and shakeups in the computer and communications sectors will continue.
Over the past year, we've seen IBM buy Lotus, Corel
buy WordPerfect, and Apple hover on the brink. Expect
more of the same.
* The move
away from
isolated desktop computers to networks--including the biggest network
of all, the Internet--will continue. Client/server will remain a
buzzword
for the rest of the decade, but it should be more of a reality, and
less of an abstract goal.
* Intel
CPUs
will remain the dominant computer architecture. Expect to find
Windows/OS2-type
operating systems on computers using keyboards and mice.
And what
sort of computer
will you find on your office desk at the turn of the century? PW thinks
it will feature a processor running somewhere between 400 and 800
mHz--10 times faster than today's Pentium 100. You'll have between
64 and 256 megs of memory, and a 10-gigabyte hard disk, recordable
CD, video-capture capabilities, and high-speed ATM or ISDN connections.
You'll use
it in new
ways--desktop video-conferencing, increased access to information
from far-flung databases, image processing, virtual reality and
multimedia.
PW expects
sweeping
changes in the communications industry as well, with increased
deregulation
and competition between the cable and telephone sectors resulting
in rapidly falling costs and increased services.
With
increased and inexpensive
bandwidth making it easier to share data, look for an increased flow
of information that will transform the entire chain between
manufacturer
and retailer, creating a more direct relationship between customer
demand and production and distribution.
Information
itself will
increasingly become a product to be distributed: "data warehousing"
has become a growth area over the past year or so, and increased access
to data will affect businesses in many key areas. There will be more
"micro-marketing" as knowledge of individuals' buying habits allows
each of us to be precisely targeted by advertisers. Lenders will be
better able to quantify risks, and inventories will be more precisely
managed as vendors at all levels gain access to more focused
information
about customers. PW sees computer and communications technology as
increasingly enabling "decision-support systems," meaning that
businesses
at all levels will be able to use customer information to make better
decisions. And the growth in groupware-using computers and networks
will bring improved communications within businesses.
We've
gotten this far
and barely mentioned the Internet. Price Waterhouse wonders whether
the current Internet craze will crash, like CB radio in the 1970s.
Still, a core 'Net would remain, distributing information between
businesses, including electronic publishing and digital commerce.
And while
PW points
out that no one really knows how to make money over the 'Net yet,
we can expect digital cash and home banking to grow, especially as
we begin to see solutions to the perceived lack of security.
Other
challenges remain
for the 'Net. How will we get broadband access to homes? Can we ensure
universal service and equal access? What about censorship? Is the
'Net robust enough to handle increased demand? Will "Internet
appliances"--consumer-oriented
computers priced at less than $1,000--change the computer market?
Will "network-centric" software models like Sun's Java change
how software is written and distributed and make computer operating
systems irrelevant?
Putting it
all together,
Price Waterhouse sees a transformation in many of the traditional
ways we've been doing business. Among the changes foreseen are more
kiosks and automated sales tools; focused direct marketing; changes
in advertising as consumers use the 'Net for entertainment and
information;
fewer intermediaries, as consumers become more directly connected
to manufacturers; and major impact on content providers, such as this
newspaper. There will be less need for physical premises, including
banks and retail outlets, as consumers shop electronically or respond
to focused direct mail. There will be less need to maintain inventory.
Inexpensively-transmitted digital bits of information will replace
the expensive moving of physical products.
If the next
few years unfold
as the seers at Price Waterhouse predict, there will be lots of
business
opportunities. While some will find it hard to avoid being swept under,
the agile will succeed in surfing the technology wave.